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Third, the basic energy industry will remain the focus of profit growth. In 2005, the upstream basic energy industry, dominated by oil and coal, became the biggest bright spot for industrial profit growth, and made the largest contribution to the growth of industrial profits. In the entire industry chain, due to excess production capacity in the downstream processing and manufacturing industries and fierce market competition, the ability of these industries to shift costs through price increases has declined, and profits have been concentrated mainly in the upstream energy industry. This trend will continue in 2006. At the same time, the adjustment of the country's energy policy will also help the basic energy industry continue to create good performance growth. At the end of 2005, the country began to increase the price of natural gas and liberalized the control of coal prices, which provided a starting point for the rise in energy prices in 2006. In terms of coal supply and demand, the growth of domestic high-energy-consuming industries is being adjusted, domestic coal demand will remain relatively stable, but the production and supply of coal is also basically stable. At the same time, the state has increased the closure of coal mines that do not meet production safety standards. This will moderately affect the supply of coal. At the same time, the state has increased the requirements for the safety conditions of coal production and will increase the investment in the safety of coal production enterprises. These all increase the desire of coal producers to increase the price of their products. Judging from the arguments at the coal ordering conference at the beginning of the year, a moderate increase in coal prices has already become a foregone conclusion. Domestic natural gas prices have been raised. China is a major importer of natural gas, and natural gas prices in the international market will continue to show high levels of performance in 2006, which will increase the pressure on domestic natural gas prices. In general, the direction of China's resource price reform is basically to gradually increase energy prices. Upward fluctuations in energy prices in 2006 are the mainstream of development. At the same time, although the country has proposed a development goal to reduce the intensity of energy consumption, the steady growth of the national economy will allow the scale of energy consumption to continue to expand, and China's energy demand will maintain rapid growth.
Finally, the country’s policy of developing domestic demand will continue to maintain rapid growth in the consumer goods processing industry. The development of domestic demand and the encouragement of rapid growth in domestic consumption have become the focus of economic regulation in 2006. Under the circumstance that investment growth is facing adjustments, the stable growth of the national economy needs to further increase the driving force for consumption, and at the same time the sustainability of economic growth and growth. The healthy balance also requires the country to adopt policy measures to increase consumption and increase final consumer demand. This is the ultimate driving force for economic growth. The state has already taken measures to improve the social security system, increase the coverage of social security mechanisms, reduce the residents’ willingness to save precautions, and vigorously carry out the construction of a new socialist countryside. Various measures have been taken to increase the income of farmers and narrow the income gap, which increases residents’ income. The policy of encouraging consumption will help create a policy environment that promotes consumption growth in 2006. The upgrading of residents’ consumption structure will also be further accelerated. Green consumption and healthy consumption have gradually become fashionable. These are conducive to the rapid growth of the consumer product manufacturing industries such as the agricultural and sideline products processing industry and food and beverage manufacturing industries, continuing the good growth in 2005. Potential.
Industry mergers and acquisitions will continue to deepen
Judging from the spirit of the “Iron and Steel Industry Policy†and the “Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment†promulgated in 2005, China’s future industrial development will focus on the development of large-scale enterprise groups with economies of scale and increase the concentration of industries. Will deepen the merger and reorganization in the industry. For a long time, China's industrial layout has been decentralized. Low-level redundant construction has led to excessive production capacity and similar product structure. This small-scale decentralized development pattern has reduced the overall competitiveness of the industry, and it is not conducive to industry improvement of technology and lower production costs. At the same time, it caused waste of uneconomical scale and caused great damage to the environment. In order to change this decentralized layout and promote the concentration of the industry, the state will encourage mergers and acquisitions within the industry, promote the concentration of resources to competitive companies, establish modern enterprise groups, and improve technological innovation capabilities so as to better participate in the competition in the international market. This indicates that mergers and acquisitions in the industry will continue to deepen in 2006.
Industry development will enter a low-profit stage
In terms of development, China's industrial growth environment is undergoing major changes, and production costs will continue to increase, while market competition will lead to downward pressure on product prices. This places enterprises in an environment in which average profit margins are declining, and industry development will enter low profits. stage.
First, rising energy prices will increase the energy costs of the downstream industries. Affected by the high oil and coal prices, there will be upward pressure on refined oil prices, and electricity prices will also face adjustments. In general, the basic spirit of China's energy price reform is to make prices reflect the scarcity of resources in the market, and to use resources to encourage the use of resources. This means that the overall cost of energy will continue to grow, which will increase the economic efficiency of downstream industries. The adverse effects.
Second, wages and social security costs are also rising. China’s long-term competitive advantage gained from cheap labor will decline. With the development of urbanization, urban water supply, electricity supply, gas supply, and transportation costs will all increase. Increasing urban living costs will also greatly promote labor wage costs. In particular, in the context of the continuous development of the rural economy, the opportunity cost of migrant workers working has increased. In general, the wages of China's labor force are on the rise. In particular, the wage costs of skilled workers are increasing rapidly. This has already occurred in some coastal areas. At the same time, the labor social security system has been gradually improved and popularized, and employers need to increase the social security investment for the employed labor force, which will increase the cost for enterprises to absorb employment.
Third, excess production capacity and fierce market price competition. Under the influence of excess production capacity and oversupply of the market, there is a downward pressure on product prices, which will greatly affect the profitability of enterprises. Moreover, not only has the price competition in the domestic market continued to intensify, but also the export market has squeezed each other's share of export shares, and export profits have also been declining.
Fourth, the cost of safety and environmental protection will increase rapidly. The country has strengthened its requirements for production safety conditions and environmental protection conditions. It will force companies to increase their investment in safety and environmental protection. The trend of increasing safety and environmental protection costs is inevitable. This will also increase production costs and reduce the profitability of enterprises.
Finally, the country’s policy of developing domestic demand will continue to maintain rapid growth in the consumer goods processing industry. The development of domestic demand and the encouragement of rapid growth in domestic consumption have become the focus of economic regulation in 2006. Under the circumstance that investment growth is facing adjustments, the stable growth of the national economy needs to further increase the driving force for consumption, and at the same time the sustainability of economic growth and growth. The healthy balance also requires the country to adopt policy measures to increase consumption and increase final consumer demand. This is the ultimate driving force for economic growth. The state has already taken measures to improve the social security system, increase the coverage of social security mechanisms, reduce the residents’ willingness to save precautions, and vigorously carry out the construction of a new socialist countryside. Various measures have been taken to increase the income of farmers and narrow the income gap, which increases residents’ income. The policy of encouraging consumption will help create a policy environment that promotes consumption growth in 2006. The upgrading of residents’ consumption structure will also be further accelerated. Green consumption and healthy consumption have gradually become fashionable. These are conducive to the rapid growth of the consumer product manufacturing industries such as the agricultural and sideline products processing industry and food and beverage manufacturing industries, continuing the good growth in 2005. Potential.
Industry mergers and acquisitions will continue to deepen
Judging from the spirit of the “Iron and Steel Industry Policy†and the “Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment†promulgated in 2005, China’s future industrial development will focus on the development of large-scale enterprise groups with economies of scale and increase the concentration of industries. Will deepen the merger and reorganization in the industry. For a long time, China's industrial layout has been decentralized. Low-level redundant construction has led to excessive production capacity and similar product structure. This small-scale decentralized development pattern has reduced the overall competitiveness of the industry, and it is not conducive to industry improvement of technology and lower production costs. At the same time, it caused waste of uneconomical scale and caused great damage to the environment. In order to change this decentralized layout and promote the concentration of the industry, the state will encourage mergers and acquisitions within the industry, promote the concentration of resources to competitive companies, establish modern enterprise groups, and improve technological innovation capabilities so as to better participate in the competition in the international market. This indicates that mergers and acquisitions in the industry will continue to deepen in 2006.
Industry development will enter a low-profit stage
In terms of development, China's industrial growth environment is undergoing major changes, and production costs will continue to increase, while market competition will lead to downward pressure on product prices. This places enterprises in an environment in which average profit margins are declining, and industry development will enter low profits. stage.
First, rising energy prices will increase the energy costs of the downstream industries. Affected by the high oil and coal prices, there will be upward pressure on refined oil prices, and electricity prices will also face adjustments. In general, the basic spirit of China's energy price reform is to make prices reflect the scarcity of resources in the market, and to use resources to encourage the use of resources. This means that the overall cost of energy will continue to grow, which will increase the economic efficiency of downstream industries. The adverse effects.
Second, wages and social security costs are also rising. China’s long-term competitive advantage gained from cheap labor will decline. With the development of urbanization, urban water supply, electricity supply, gas supply, and transportation costs will all increase. Increasing urban living costs will also greatly promote labor wage costs. In particular, in the context of the continuous development of the rural economy, the opportunity cost of migrant workers working has increased. In general, the wages of China's labor force are on the rise. In particular, the wage costs of skilled workers are increasing rapidly. This has already occurred in some coastal areas. At the same time, the labor social security system has been gradually improved and popularized, and employers need to increase the social security investment for the employed labor force, which will increase the cost for enterprises to absorb employment.
Third, excess production capacity and fierce market price competition. Under the influence of excess production capacity and oversupply of the market, there is a downward pressure on product prices, which will greatly affect the profitability of enterprises. Moreover, not only has the price competition in the domestic market continued to intensify, but also the export market has squeezed each other's share of export shares, and export profits have also been declining.
Fourth, the cost of safety and environmental protection will increase rapidly. The country has strengthened its requirements for production safety conditions and environmental protection conditions. It will force companies to increase their investment in safety and environmental protection. The trend of increasing safety and environmental protection costs is inevitable. This will also increase production costs and reduce the profitability of enterprises.
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