What motivated the chemical economy in 2009?

In 2009, the petrochemical industry realized a total industrial output value of 6.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year. Although the growth rate is small, it cannot be overlooked, because last year was the most difficult year for the domestic economy and industries since the new century. This kind of performance did not come easily.

It is understood that, in addition to the total industrial output value, many figures in the petrochemical industry's 2009 economic report are very eye-catching: From the perspective of growth, the value-added of the chemical industry increased by 15.9% year-on-year, the petroleum and natural gas exploration industry increased by 4.8%, and the refining industry increased by 5.2%. The chemical industry has become the main driving force of economic growth; from the perspective of production and sales, the level of 98.3% in the industry is higher than the national average of 97.67%; from the perspective of import and export, the import and export volume has been reduced from double at the beginning of the year to double in December. Rise.

What motivated the industry economy in 2009?

Yin Xiaodong, chief analyst of the petrochemical industry at CITIC Securities Co., said in an interview with reporters that the recovery of the petrochemical industry had a clear signal in the second half of 2009. On the one hand, at the end of 2008, China's refined oil pricing mechanism was further improved. Domestic refined oil prices were adjusted based on relevant factors such as crude oil prices in the international market, which better reflected the production costs, market supply and demand, and resource scarcity. This has greatly improved the profitability of the refining industry and large-scale refinery companies. On the other hand, the 4 trillion yuan investment has a positive effect on the market demand for the petrochemical industry. In particular, the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, petrochemical companies can create a virtuous cycle of destocking and restocking, but also benefit from the increase in domestic demand. Yin Xiaodong believes that overall, policy factors have directly reversed the economic situation.

This kind of economy led by policies directly or indirectly provides space for structural adjustment and transformation of the petrochemical industry.

Feng Shiliang, a senior analyst at the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, basically agreed with the view of “policy factor”. At the press conference on the status of the industrial economy held at the end of January, he introduced several major factors that promoted the recovery of the industry economy.

First, the country's macroeconomic policies have been promoted. The implementation of policies such as home appliances going to the countryside, home appliances replacement, and automobile going to the countryside has stimulated the purchasing power of the society and has driven the market demand for chemical accessory products. The boom in home appliances and auto market will inevitably stimulate enterprises to increase their enthusiasm for the scale and variety of supporting chemical products.

Second, national policies have played a key role. Last year, the export tax rebate rate for 1150 kinds of important petrochemical products was recovered and increased, accounting for 86.5% of the 1,330 tariff lines of petrochemical export products. The export tax rebate rate for most chemical products has basically been adjusted to 13%; the provisional tariff for the export of sulfuric acid was cancelled. Removed special export tariffs for yellow phosphorus, phosphate ore, ammonia, phosphoric acid, ammonium chloride, heavy superphosphate, and binary compound fertilizers; synthetic ammonia, phosphoric acid, ammonium chloride, heavy superphosphate, binary Fertilizer products such as compound fertilizers will impose a 10% temporary export tariff and extend the off-season time for export tariffs on urea, monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate, and extend the applicable off-season export tax rate for urea for one month. Monoammonium phosphate The application period of the off-season export tax rate for diammonium phosphate has been extended by one and a half months; it is actively inclined to large and medium-sized enterprises in terms of credit. The support of these policies has greatly eased the operating pressure of the company. Similarly, there is a strong signal to curb excess capacity.

Third, the supporting role of the downstream industry. The increase in related downstream industry demand in 2009 drove the growth in the chemical industry. For example, machinery paper and board increased by 12.1%, paper products increased by 14.9%, fertilizers increased by 14.5%, synthetic detergents increased by 9.3%, plastic products increased by 10.6%, and asphalt and modified bitumen membranes increased by 18.7%. Large and medium-sized tractors grew by 30.7%, automobiles by 47.8%, and insulation products by 27.4%. The growth of these products directly led to the increase in related chemical products. It can be said that the shift from the east to the west and the focus of the product market has promoted the timely adjustment of the product structure of the industry and increased the production of marketable products. This has played a supportive role in stabilizing and recovering the economy of the chemical industry.

It is noteworthy that in the above three aspects, two aspects are driven by the consumption of related industries. According to Zhu Hao, deputy director of the Industrial Information Department of the Petrochemical Association, overall, the recovery of the petrochemical industry in 2009 was positive, and under the guidance of the policy economy, domestic demand played a very important role. This is particularly evident in the rubber products industry. Due to the dual impact of the financial crisis and the United States special security case, tire exports are struggling. However, last year domestic production of tires reached 655 million, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year; exports of tires were 302 million, and the dependence on exports was about 46%, a decrease of 10 percentage points from the previous year. It can be seen that the growth of domestic automobile demand has played a key role.

For the "domestic demand," companies are very much in agreement. A person in charge of Shaanxi Xinghua Co., Ltd. stated that the state’s investment in infrastructure such as the “iron public engine” (railway, highway, and airport) benefited the company’s main product, ammonium nitrate, and played a very important role in the company's production and production. Great driving effect. Yan Kai, the HSE senior manager of Yantai Wanhua Polyurethane Co., Ltd., believes that at the end of 2008, the company was indeed affected by the financial crisis. The demand market suddenly “cold” and the product sales are difficult. However, with the implementation of policies such as automobile going to the countryside and home appliances to the countryside, as well as the rapid development of the real estate industry, the market will soon feel warmer in 2009.

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