Air Traffic Fighting or Coming

In recent years, China’s civil aviation industry has been seemingly placid, but it is actually undercurrent. Due to economic, policy, and industry competition, structural changes are taking place. In the business model, on the basis of traditional full-service aviation, low-cost airlines have emerged and gradually expanded. In addition, foreign-leading high-end aviation (such as the UAE, Singapore, etc.) has also brought a lot of impact and influence; regional structure The traditional North China, East China, and South China markets are becoming increasingly saturated, and the focus of growth has gradually shifted to the northeast, northwest, and southwest. The composition of travelers has changed from public business to leisure tourism, and it has shifted from public funding to self-finance. Based on the network model, the three major carriers (especially China Southern Airlines) began to build a true portal hub network based on the traditional false hub spoke (actually point-to-point) network architecture; in the market concentration, with the small and medium-sized With the rapid development of the company, the share of the three major navigation companies has declined, the industry concentration has declined, and the market competition has become increasingly fierce. The operating pressure continues to increase. All these have subtly influenced the development and direction of the civil aviation industry. This article first talks about the changes in market concentration.

From 2010 to the first half of 2013, the market share of passengers in the three major airlines dropped from 61.3% to 55.2%, a drop of 6.1 percentage points. Among them, China Southern Airlines experienced the largest decline, down 2.7 percentage points; Air China dropped 2.1 percentage points, and Eastern Airlines saw the smallest decline, down 1.3 percentage points. In addition, the share of the passenger transportation market for small and medium-sized airlines (except for Shanhang Airlines) has increased.

Since the main body of market competition is not simply airlines, it is more reflected in the competition among the groups. Therefore, let us look at the market share of aviation groups. From the first half of 2010 to the first half of this year, the market share of passenger traffic in the three major aviation groups also dropped significantly, from 81.7% to 76.0%, a decrease of 5.7 percentage points. Among them, China Southern Airlines Group, China Eastern Airlines Group and Air China Group dropped by 2.5, 2.1 and 1.2 percentage points respectively.

The gradual loss of market share of the three major airline passengers, of course, there are three large navigation base, low growth rate, small and medium companies with low base, high growth rate and show the "data bias", but the following reasons can not be ignored:

First, the government guides the industry policy of “low growth rate of large-scale companies and high growth of small and medium-sized companies”;

Secondly, the private airlines established around 2005 are full of vitality. The best of them quickly adapt to market competition and quickly expand their scale, such as Chunqiu, Jixiang, Hebei, and Okay.

The third and the three major airlines have not been able to properly integrate resources and rationalize the management system after undergoing mergers and acquisitions around the year 2000. They are now more or less confronted with issues such as management bottlenecks or fleet complexity. The focus is entirely on scale expansion;

Despite the fact that the three major airlines have fought off and retreated, the share of the passenger transportation market has obviously declined, but there is no doubt that the main base will be stable and stable to ensure market control. From the following figure, from 2010 to the first half of 2013, the market share of China Southern Airlines Group in Guangzhou (excluding foreign company data, the same below) fell only 0.9 percentage points; although Spring and Autumn, auspicious in Shanghai Hongqiao continue to put capacity, but Eastern Airlines The Group’s market share in Hongqiao also only fell by 1.9%; while Air China’s share in Beijing also fell only 0.4%. Currently, the three major groups basically maintain more than half of the market share in the main base market, ensuring that they continue to have a strong control over the hub market. Among them, the share of China Southern Airlines Group, China Eastern Airlines Group and Air China Group at their respective hub airports reached 54.8%, 56.5% and 48.1% respectively. The strength of the three major navigation companies in the main base market is not only due to their willingness to invest heavily, but also because the three major hubs are already facing saturation and the market growth is limited, while the three major airlines have relatively preferential distribution in limited increments. right. This makes it difficult for other companies to enter their core markets and ensure the stability of their core markets.

To sum up, in recent years, with the rapid development of small and medium-sized companies, the domestic civil aviation market landscape has been changing subtly. Although due to the saturation of the major markets and the long-term first-mover advantage of the three major navigation companies in their base layout and time resources, it is difficult for small and medium-sized companies to have a major impact on the major markets of the three major navigation companies in the short term. However, with the relaxation of the bureau's industry access policy, the enthusiasm of local government investment airlines, and the advantages of small and medium-sized companies in the historical burden and management system, in the long term, the downward trend in market concentration may be more pronounced, and the speed will gradually increase. Accelerated, the industry may gradually enter the new situation of warlords.