The impact of the National III emission standards, which came into effect on July 1 this year, was quickly felt in the commercial vehicle market. According to recent data, the sector experienced a sharp decline in sales and production following the implementation. For instance, the sales of China Cards dropped by 16.01% year-on-year, while heavy trucks saw their first annual decline in both production and sales. In response, domestic commercial vehicle manufacturers began adjusting their strategies, including reducing prices and lowering sales targets to cope with the slowdown.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, commercial vehicle production and sales in July reached 189,700 and 177,600 units respectively, marking a significant drop of 17.25% and 28.5% compared to the same period last year. While output slightly increased by 4.36% compared to July 2007, sales fell by 3.35% year-on-year.
In certain segments of the commercial vehicle market, such as large passenger cars, micro-cars, and light commercial vehicles, sales showed positive growth, increasing by 37.1%, 48.9%, and 37.85% respectively. However, the heavy truck and medium truck markets faced challenges. Heavy truck production in July dropped by 54% year-on-year to 20,042 units, while sales fell by 26.72% to 18,380 units — the first time since recent years that heavy trucks recorded negative growth in both production and sales. Compared to June, the decline was even steeper, with production down 29.46% and sales down 51.96%.
Sun Muzi, an auto analyst from a securities firm, explained that the market had anticipated a cooling in the second half of the year due to the National III standard’s impact on heavy trucks. He noted that many consumers opted to purchase National II trucks before July 1 to avoid the higher costs associated with the new standard. This pre-buying behavior fueled a strong first-half market but led to a demand oversupply in the second half.
As a result, only two heavy truck models (with a total mass over 14 tons) sold more than 5,000 units in July: China National Heavy Duty Truck and Shaanxi Automobile. This marked a stark contrast to the monthly sales of over 10,000 units seen earlier in the year.
Although the light-duty truck market saw a slight increase in July, industry expectations were lowered. Production rose by 6.95% to 86,257 units, and sales increased by 1.79% to 83,456 units, but both figures declined compared to June by 14.42% and 19.24% respectively.
Lin Wei, Secretary-General of the China Light Vehicle Joint Analysis Association, mentioned that light trucks with a capacity of 3.5 tons or less are now subject to the National III standard. He added that the performance of these vehicles is acceptable and that the full impact of the standard is expected to be seen in the coming months, with an anticipated 10% year-on-year increase in sales.
A commercial vehicle dealer also expressed concerns about the young card market in the second half of the year. He noted that consumer hesitation and a reduced number of buyers were affecting sales. Additionally, the price increases resulting from the National III standard could further dampen purchasing interest.
With the new emission standards taking hold, commercial vehicle companies are facing new challenges, signaling a period of adjustment for the entire industry.
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