National III Emission Standard Implements Xianwei’s “Double Drop” in Production and Sales of Commercial Vehicles in July

The impact of the National III emission standards, which came into effect on July 1st this year, has been felt quickly in the commercial vehicle market. According to recent data, the previously booming sales of commercial vehicles have seen a sharp decline. For example, China Card's sales dropped by 16.01% year-on-year, while heavy trucks experienced their first annual decline in production and sales. In response, domestic commercial vehicle manufacturers have started adjusting strategies, including lowering prices and setting more conservative sales targets to cope with the slowdown. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July 2023, commercial vehicle production reached 189,700 units, while sales were 177,600 units — marking a year-on-year decrease of 17.25% and 28.5%, respectively. Compared to July 2007, production increased slightly by 4.36%, but sales fell by 3.35%. Within the commercial vehicle segment, large buses, micro-cars, and mini-vans showed strong performance, with sales rising by 37.1%, 48.9%, and 37.85% year-on-year, respectively. However, the outlook for heavy-duty trucks and medium-sized trucks remains uncertain. Heavy truck production in July was 20,042 units, down 54% year-on-year, while sales reached 18,380 units, a drop of 26.72%. This marked the first time in recent years that both production and sales of heavy trucks saw negative growth. Compared to June, the output and sales of heavy trucks plummeted by 29.46% and 51.96%, respectively. Sun Muzi, an auto analyst from a securities firm, explained that the market had anticipated a cooling in the second half of the year due to the implementation of the National III standard. He noted that heavy trucks under National III are typically 20,000 to 50,000 yuan more expensive than those under the previous standard. As a result, many consumers rushed to buy National II trucks before July 1, leading to a surge in demand during the first half of the year and an oversupply in the second half. In July, only two heavy truck models (with a total mass over 14 tons) sold more than 5,000 units: China National Heavy Duty Truck and Shaanxi Automobile. This is a stark contrast to the monthly sales of over 10,000 units seen earlier in the year. Although the light-duty truck market saw a slight increase in July, industry expectations have been lowered. Production of light trucks reached 86,257 units, while sales were 83,456 units — up 6.95% and 1.79% year-on-year, but down 14.42% and 19.24% compared to June. Lin Wei, Secretary-General of the China Light Vehicle Joint Analysis Association, said that light trucks with a capacity of 3.5 tons or less will be affected by the National III standard in the next year, and their performance is currently acceptable. He expects the impact to become more visible in the future, with an estimated 10% year-on-year increase in sales of light trucks. A commercial vehicle dealer also warned that the light truck market may face challenges in the second half of the year. Consumers are showing a wait-and-see attitude, and fewer people are purchasing vehicles. Additionally, the price hikes following the implementation of the National III standard are likely to further dampen consumer demand. With these changes, the commercial vehicle industry is entering a new phase, facing both challenges and opportunities as it adapts to stricter environmental regulations.

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